Cycle Propensity Scenarios – Mid-West Regional Model

The Cycle Propensity Tool expands upon the Regional Modelling System (RMS) by enabling modellers and planners to examine potential futures where levels of cycling in Ireland are markedly different to the current (2016 census data) observed mode shares.

This viewer provides the results of three CPT scenarios:

  • Propensity to cycle has doubled (medium);
  • Propensity to cycle has quadrupled (high);
  • Propensity to cycle has quadrupled and all trips are made at 25kph (high with e-bikes).

These scenarios should be treated as example of potential cycling futures, rather than definitive forecasts. Alternative forecasts may be available upon request.

The CPT undertakes a mathematical adjustment based upon statistical analysis to the cycling alternative specific constant (ASC) in the mode and destination utility choice, whereby increased cycle propensity results in a higher cycling mode share, all other things being equal. This accounts for elements of cycling currently unquantified in the RMS.

The CPT is a powerful tool for understanding the geographic distribution of increased cycling uptake and its interaction with other transport modes and leveraging the power of the NTA’s Regional Modelling System.

While outlining the impact of increased levels of cycling, the CPT is not a forecasting tool and does not respond to policy interventions or the provision of new infrastructure. Specifically, the CPT assists transport planners and modellers in understanding and visualising a transport landscape with elevated levels of cycling, but it does not provide the insight into how such a future may be realised or evaluate how cycling uptake responds to specific measures.

For more information on the tool, or to request data or outputs of the CPT, please contact ntamodel@nationaltransport.ie.