Introduction to the NDFM

Diagram of National Demand Forecasting Model.

NDFM stands for the National Demand Forecasting Model. The NDFM is a single national system that provides estimates of the total quantity of daily travel demand produced by, and attracted to, each of the Census Small Areas. Trip generations and attractions are related to zonal attributes such as population, number of employees and other land-use data. The NDFM provides input into the regional models and interacts with a number of key regional model components and utilises planning data to output levels of travel demand at the smallest available spatial aggregation (Census Small Area) for input into each of the Regional Models.

NDFM includes the set of models and tools used to derive levels of trip making from planning data for input to each of the regional models. The main features of the NDFM include:

  • 24-hr Average Weekday Person Demand
  • HGV Forecasts
  • Inter-Regional Demand
  • Outputs levels of trip making at the smallest available spatial aggregation (Census Small Area)
Components of the NDFM
  • Long Distance Model
  • Planning Data Adjustment Tool (PDAT)
  • Car Ownership/Car Competition Model
  • National Trip-End Model (NTEM)
  • Regional Model Strategic Integration Tool (RMSIT)

More information is available in the NDFM report which is available on request.

Alternative Scenario Development Note