National Demand Forecasting Model

Diagram of National Demand Forecasting Model.

The National Demand Forecasting Model (NDFM)

The National Demand Forecasting Model (NDFM) is a national-level transport model, that forecasts the total quantity of average weekday travel demand produced by, and attracted to, each of the state’s Census Small Areas (CSA), for relevant future year scenarios.

Trip productions and destination attractions are related to CSA attributes, such as origin population and socio-economic characteristics, number of job and education places present at destination, and other land-use characteristics. The NDFM forms Stage 1 of the traditional 4 Stage transport model. Trip productions and attractions are forecast for the following purposes:

  • Commuting
  • Education
  • Escort to Education
  • Food Shopping
  • Employer’s Business
  • Visiting
  • Retired Trips
  • Other Trips
  • Port and Airport Trips

Set of NDFM Sub-Models and Tools

The NDFM includes the set of sub-models and tools used to forecast levels of trip making from planning data, to be used as inputs by each of the Regional Multi Modal Models (RMMS).

These include:

  • National Trip-End Model (NTEM)
  • Long Distance Model (LDM)*
  • Planning Data Adjustment Tool (PDAT)
  • Car Ownership/Car Competition Model (COCMP)
  • Regional Model Strategic Integration Tool (RMSIT)

*The LDM can also be considered to be a stand-alone national 4 Stage model for long distance trips.

Main Outputs of the NDFM

The main outputs of the NDFM are:

  • 24-hr Average Weekday Origin-End Trips
  • 24-hr Average Weekday Destination-End Attractions
  • Inter-Regional Long Distance Travel Demand
  • HGV and OGV Demand
  • Trip Level Car Availability Proportions

More information is available in the NDFM report which is available on request.
Alternative Scenario Development Note